Demis Hassabis has updated his prediction for artificial general intelligence, stating it could arrive within two to three years. The Google Deepmind founder previously estimated a three to five year window but told the Wall Street Journal that the timeline keeps moving closer to the present. He defines AGI as a system matching the full cognitive range of the human brain and uses the Einstein test as a litmus measure. This test asks whether a system trained only on pre-1901 knowledge could reproduce Albert Einstein’s 1905 papers.
Hassabis compares the potential impact to ten times the industrial revolution at ten times the speed. Since stepping down from Google Deepmind, he has focused on Isomorphic Labs, a drug discovery AI spin-off. He recently pitched an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release. He warns that bad regulation is worse than none.
* Hassabis is a Nobel laureate in chemistry
* The prediction applies to systems matching human cognitive range
* He previously advised caution against bad regulation
