‘Coding Was Never the Bottleneck’ Is Actually Bearish for Employment
It appears that with the acceleration of software coding through AI, many programmers assert that while coding itself has become faster, the overall productivity gain hasn’t been as significant. Instead, they highlight other factors such as meetings, coordination with other teams, bureaucracy, and organizational friction.
I remember even in pre-LLM times, developers often dismissed these “other” aspects of their jobs as inefficient bureaucratic hurdles that typically impeded progress. Of course, some form of coordination is essential, especially in large systems or products with many stakeholders. However, a lot of it also seems to stem from organizational bloating: too many teams, layers of management, and numerous handoffs.
If we take the argument that “coding was never the bottleneck” to its logical conclusion, it doesn’t necessarily improve the employment outlook. Instead, it may make things worse. If AI accelerates coding but productivity remains constrained by coordination and bureaucracy, then the next target for optimization would be the organizational structure around coding.
This suggests a path toward much leaner teams. Newer companies can be built from scratch with fewer people, fewer layers of management, less bureaucracy, and more AI-assisted execution. They could learn from the inefficient work processes of older, bloated organizations and potentially outcompete them with smaller, faster-moving teams.
Moreover, if this trend continues, older companies will likely need to respond by reducing coordination overhead, flattening their management structures, automating internal processes, and eliminating jobs that exist primarily because the organization is large and inefficient.
In conclusion, while AI might speed up coding, it doesn’t necessarily improve overall productivity. In fact, it could exacerbate issues like organizational inefficiencies, leading to a more streamlined workforce in newer companies at the expense of older ones. This shift may make employment for developers more precarious rather than beneficial.
Key Takeaways
- AI-assisted coding does not guarantee significant overall productivity gains if bottlenecks persist with coordination and bureaucracy.
- Newer, leaner organizations can potentially outcompete older, bloated ones by leveraging AI to reduce inefficiencies.
- The shift towards more efficient organizational structures may lead to job losses in traditional roles within larger companies.
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