When the US government ordered Anthropic to block its most advanced AI models for anyone outside American borders, the immediate consequence was a blackout for European developers. Now, the European Commission is assessing the fallout, with experts viewing the event as a stark wake-up call, though they remain divided on how to react.
The Commission is currently evaluating the practical impact of the export control order that forced Anthropic to take down its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models globally. Thomas Regnier, the Commission’s spokesperson for technological sovereignty, told Euronews that emergency measures must “not be discriminatory against partners.” He framed the situation as a “shared challenge, not one confined to a single jurisdiction or company,” adding that it serves as “a further illustration of why Europe needs to strengthen its technological sovereignty,” according to Reuters.
Just days prior, Anthropic pulled its cutting-edge models worldwide following a US directive tied to national security concerns. Negotiations to restore access are ongoing, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is set to join the heads of other leading AI firms at a working dinner with G7 leaders on Wednesday.
Researchers agree on the alarm, not the response
Several European researchers, in statements published by the Science Media Center, describe the situation as a wake-up call. However, they disagree sharply on the path forward.
Thorsten Holz of the Max Planck Institute for Security and Privacy noted the striking reality that a single foreign government order could “shut down a model overnight for all non-US citizens,” affecting European companies in the process. He argued that digital sovereignty does not mean self-sufficiency; rather, it means possessing the ability to utilise critical technology even during geopolitical conflicts.
Konrad Rieck of TU Berlin was more blunt, stating that US models can be “shut off at any time, sometimes for opaque reasons.” He insisted that Europe must develop and operate its own capable models. Gitta Kutyniok of LMU Munich called for an “Airbus moment” for AI, demanding joint, ambitious investment in foundation models, chip design, and energy-efficient computing. She warned that anyone waiting until the structures are already in place will have almost no room left to shape them.
Paul Röttger of the Oxford Internet Institute took a very different stance. He argued that increased investment in European AI is not the answer, stating: “Europe won’t be able to develop models like Mythos or Fable 5 in competition with the US.” Instead, Röttger suggested that access should be secured through contracts tied to data centre investments and backed by credible trade policy threats.
Two additional researchers highlighted the immense difficulty of building homegrown capacity. Matthias Hein of the University of Tübingen warned that Europe needs not just one, but several providers of its own, as no one should count on commercial companies to continue releasing open-weight models. Jonas Geiping of the ELLIS Institute Tübingen pointed to the structural barriers preventing this goal. He noted that French company Mistral has “fallen far behind” over the past two years. Even if new players emerged, the basics are missing: large-scale data centres and sufficient power generation, with levels in Germany having dropped back to 1985 figures.
Geiping also cautioned against drawing historical parallels to nuclear weapons tensions, a comparison Anthropic itself frequently employs. Unlike nuclear weapons, he argued, AI is deeply woven into the economy. A shutdown or restriction during a diplomatic conflict would not just impact defence capabilities; it could deal serious damage to the European economy if essential processes cannot function without strong AI.
Key takeaways
- The European Commission is investigating US export controls that blocked access to Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, warning that such measures must not discriminate against partners.
- European researchers are split on the solution: some demand massive joint investment in domestic infrastructure, while others argue Europe should secure access via trade policy and contracts.
- Significant structural hurdles remain, including a lack of large-scale data centres and power generation, alongside the risk that reliance on foreign models could cripple the economy during conflicts.
