The most anticipated event of the United Nations General Assembly this week is the meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. While most diplomatic activity occurs in New York, this face-to-face will take place at the White House. Trump is scheduled to welcome Xi at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday, September 23. This is an unusual diplomatic gesture, as US presidents do not typically go to the airport to welcome foreign leaders.
Ahead of that airport reunion, a US delegation led by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer is meeting with He Lifeng, China’s vice premier of the State Council, to set the agenda. The World Economic Forum presented an overview of some of the most pressing topics, including the trade conflict, the supply chain, technological competition, and the ever-sensitive issue of Taiwan. All this happens while keeping in mind the difficulties that have kept the US mired in a war in the Middle East that threatens to escalate.
Trade truce expiring
The trade truce that came out of Trump and Xi’s meeting in Busan last year is set to expire on November 10. Both governments now have to decide whether to extend the agreement, which lowered Trump’s tariff threats and paused port fees. In addition to discussing the possibility of extension, the leaders could decide to set purchase targets for key trade items including agricultural products, energy, and Boeing aircraft. They may also continue negotiations about a package worth approximately $30 billion in “non-sensitive” goods, which includes about 10 categories, though there is no agreement on their scope.
One key component of the Busan agreement was that it lifted China’s export limits on rare earths and minerals. These are key exports for automobiles, defence, and technology, including essential hardware for AI. With the US seeking a more stable supply for these materials, Beijing has used its dominant position in the international market to bring Washington to the negotiating table in the trade war.
AI competition
According to Scott Bessent, AI safety will be on the agenda for the bilateral meeting. This discussion has been one of the main requests from business leaders, though the industry is mixed on the desired outcomes. Beijing wants to see the US ease some restrictions on Chinese technologies. However, as there is a growing call to slow down AI development to ensure safety, some US businesses are worried about being outpaced by China.
This arena remains uncertain, as Trump has dismissed such calls for regulation at home, and these discussions are also intertwined with trade talks about export controls on computer chips and related materials.
Iran, Taiwan, and global politics
The trade talks lie uneasily between each country’s most sensitive geopolitical stances. China has threatened to pull out of the summit entirely if the US green-lights new arms sales to Taiwan. The countries are, however, expected to discuss China’s economic ties with Iran, as well as detained foreign nationals. Both countries are expected to tread lightly without ceding influence, making any fundamental shift unlikely.
Washington is pushing for greater access to Chinese products and markets, critical minerals, and commitments on certain security issues. On the other side of the table, Beijing seeks relief from tariffs and restrictions. Each side has its own leverage and multiple pieces on various chessboards, such as Africa and Latin America. At the same time, both are trying to prevent Taiwan and other geopolitical conflicts from undermining their economic relationship.
The meeting held this past May in Beijing was full of symbolic gestures, but both leaders made very few concessions at the negotiating table. Will there be a different outcome in Washington?
“I think there will be some show of deliverables because of the fact that it’s a presidential summit coming, but I don’t feel like we’re on the verge of some sort of breakthrough,” Anna Ashton, a China trade analyst and founder of Ashton Intelligence, told CNBC. “I think status quo is probably both sides’ general best expectation.”
What it means
For developers of AI models and systems, the outcome of this summit determines the regulatory environment and access to hardware. If the US and China agree to expand the $30 billion package of “non-sensitive” goods, developers may gain easier access to specific components without new restrictions. However, if Beijing maintains or tightens controls on rare earths and minerals, the supply chain for high-performance computing could face bottlenecks. Safety discussions could result in new standards or delays, but industry anxiety suggests that the primary concern for many remains whether they can keep up with Chinese progress while complying with potential export controls.
